Red Waves and Racist Rants in the Presidential Election Homestretch
If there’s anything you’re likely to hear if you read up about this year’s presidential contest, it’s that the race is tight between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
This weekend there’s a spate of media accounts saying Trump is gaining on or taking the lead from Harris.
Please, please, please, don’t let this framing fool you. What we’re experiencing is a “Red Wave,” the latest chapter in the disinformation playbook.
The campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning - when he isn't - has escalated in the last few days. The hope is to influence voter enthusiasm.
I don’t know what the real numbers are, and neither does anybody else. What I do know is that we’re amid the tactics openly discussed (by Steve Bannon & others) for the last month of the Trump campaign.
The difference between this practice and more traditional dirty trickster-type polling “leaked” to is the intended audience.
When then Union-Tribune publisher Doug Manchester published polling showing Republican Carl DeMaio beating Democrat Bob Filner by 10 points in the 2012 mayoral election, he was aiming his fraudulent factoids at the public. The same institution giving credibility to the poll (University of San Diego Center for Education Policy and Law) also showed the GOP’s Brian Bilbray beating now-congressman Scott Peters by 9 points. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find the UT publisher’s and his cronies’ contributions to the Center.
(It’s common for wealthy donors to aim at immortality by setting up “Centers” at Universities. Not all are aimed at political causes, but next time you see something political attributed to Stanford University, look further to see if you find the words “Hoover Institute.”)
What you’re seeing at this point in the 2024 Presidential contest are a slew of surveys aimed at the polling aggregators used by major media. On the surface their methodologies and presumed neutrality may seem okay. You have to dig a bit to garner some truth, which comes out in the population targeted (registered vs likely voters), imbalances in demographics, and –most importantly– the phrasing/content of the questions asked.
Republicans are going to extraordinary lengths right now - red wave polls, releasing "internals," Polymarket (betting) voodoo - to try to make it look like Trump is winning the election when he isn't.
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls in recent weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
In these instances, the aim is to have multiple trusted media outlets sow confusion and disillusionment. Most folks know at this point that when Donald Trump says he’s leading in the polls it’s 100% bullshit. His fans say it’s part of his grandiosity and like him for being such a “strong” man. His supposed lead in polls is a way to make all his ugliness disappear.
Of the last 15 general election polls released in Pennsylvania, 12 have right/GOP affiliations.
More than 25 organizations involved in Red Wave 2024 dropped 27 polls last week covering battleground states.
When American Greatness/TIPP drops a bunch of polls, like the one showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, look for the questions towards the end of the questionnaire.
In this instance, the poll asked if respondents approved or disapproved of “the Federal Emergency Management Agency reallocated $650 million to support migrants, leaving less money available for hurricane relief efforts.” Why would a pollster ask about a known and discredited untruth? There were other problems, like only 12 people surveyed in Philadelphia…
A big name pollster just got booted from many reporter’s trusted lists after leaked emails detailed close collaboration between the Trump campaign, Rasmussen Reports, and the Heartland Institute. (Heartland is used by right wingers for reports supporting climate change denialism, for school curricula aimed at reducing the roles minorities played in history, and a host of other “free market” subjects.)
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Two things you should be aware of when reflecting on the upcoming presidential election:
In 2020, about 50% of Trump's campaign contributions came from "small dollar donors" but in 2024, only about 30% of his contributions are coming from those donors. To be sure, the GOP candidate has billionaires like Elon Musk who will make up the monetary difference, but what it shows me is that enthusiasm is waning.
Perhaps this decline is caused by seemingly nobody ever winning the campaign’s contests and promotions. A New York Times investigation looked at some 7,400 emails sent by the Trump campaign, with about one-third of the messages offering an incentive to entice recipients to make a small donation.
Those incentives included 41 sweepstakes, 47 memberships to advisory councils or clubs, or opportunities to join a list, and 110 pieces of Trump-branded merchandise. The combined approximate retail value of the contest prizes offered totaled more than $180,000.
The Times sent the campaign a detailed list of every contest it had promoted in fund-raising emails from Nov. 15, 2022, to Sept. 16, 2024, and asked the campaign to confirm that each contest had a winner and to provide the names of the winners. The Times also asked the campaign to provide photos of the winners with Mr. Trump in cases in which a photo was part of the prize, and a link to a “personalized” Christmas message from Mr. Trump offered as a prize in December 2022.
The campaign did not confirm that each contest had a winner. It also did not provide winners’ names, photos or a link to the Christmas video.
In several emails to subscribers since late August, the campaign has included two photos it said were of contest winners: a man named William McGuffin and his son, as well as another pair whose names the campaign did not provide. A Times review of local news and social media sources did not find winners for any of the other 39 contests.
Trump’s cranking up his stump speeches, making them nothing less than a full blown hate campaign against black and brown people. This sort of rhetoric is what you might have heard at a KKK rally back in the day.
Historians will look back in astonishment that this terrifying reality wasn’t the subject of wall to wall coverage and commentary in weeks leading up to this election. He’s not hiding anything.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been telling people that if they want more info on Trump to watch his campaign rallies. On Friday, the former President spoke in Aurora, Colorado, focused on immigration (though he wanders).
Stephen Miller, aka Dollar Store Goebbels, was an opening act. He masterfully worked the crowd by pointing at photos of Hispanic people, encouraging them to boo and yell at them. It’s exactly the kind of wholesome, family-friendly atmosphere we’ve come to expect from a Trump rally—because nothing stirs the soul quite like a good, old-fashioned bout of xenophobia.